Welcome to Heroa, a weekly newsletter about women in start-ups and ventures. If you enjoy what you read, please do share this newsletter with friends and subscribe by clicking the button below!
Hello and welcome back to Heroa! What a start to 2021!
As we're still in the throes of the pandemic, it's perhaps more challenging than ever to forecast how the world will irrevocably change in 2021. There's just too much complexity, too many unknowns, and even too many 'unknown unknowns’
You’ve probably heard of the study that found that most expert predictions are no more accurate than a chimpanzee randomly throwing darts.
The author of that study is Philip Tetlock, a professor of psychology at the University of Pennsylvania. Most expert predictions were indeed no better than random guessing (or, put more amusingly, chimps throwing darts), but that glances over the fact that some outliers were startlingly accurate over shorter ranges.
We do have some ability to forecast into the future as Philip Tetlock found when he set up the Good Judgment Project and invited thousands of volunteers to partake in forecasting exercises.
Tetlock documented his results in 'Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction', which provides some valuable mental models and lessons that we can apply to all facets of life, not least venturing. I’d highly recommend checking out his book.
In summary, however, with the most comprehensive study of forecasting to date, Tetlock found that:
Foresight is real. Some people have it in spades. They aren't gurus or oracles with the power to peer decades into the future, but they do have a real measurable skill at judging how high stakes events are likely to unfold three months, six months, a year, or a year and a half in advance. The other conclusion is what makes these superforecasters so good. It's not really who they are. It is what they do. Foresight isn't a mysterious gift bestowed at birth. It is the product of particular ways of thinking, of gathering information, of updating beliefs.
Round-up of the news this week
Sifted’s 2021 predictions - I particularly agree with their prediction that climate change tech will become a hotter (if not the hottest) investment topic of the year. It's not just Facebook that is locking Trump out. Shopify and PayPal have both removed Trump-related accounts after Trump supporters took over the US Capitol on Wednesday. The value of Bitcoin plunged by 20% over the last three days.
Tech start-ups have also had an eventful start to 2021. There are 5 new tech unicorns already in 2021. In comparison, there were 17 new unicorns in Q3 2021.
However, in a particularly sobering statistic, the US lost 140,000 jobs in December, of which 156,000 were lost by women. Male employment rose 16,000. This job loss is partially attributed to more women working in the especially hard-hit sectors of hospitality, retail, and education. A reminder how important it is to encourage women to consider technology careers.
From the investors
“To say that we don’t need to develop new tech because there’s enough already misunderstands the ways in which innovation emerges.” Zoe Chambers, Octopus Ventures
Europe needs to back more deeptech startups by Zoë Chambers of Octopus Ventures. Zoe argues in favor of deploying more European capital in deeptech startups and against Nicholas Colin’s view that there is more technology available than we know what to do with.
Law goes corporate. The rise of B2B legal tech by Michelle Nacouzi of Northzone. One of the slowest sectors to digitize is in fact coming online, driven by more advanced and operational corporate legal departments. The rise of legal operations groups within large corporates is the clearest sign of a ripening legal tech market.
What I learnt taking part in Atomico’s angel program by Sarah Drinkwater. Sarah shares her belief that money is never the most important thing (in the context of angel investing).
You raised seed - and now you want to raise a series A by Sophia Bendz of Cherry Ventures. The most important element is to be prepared - really prepared.
Building the future enterprise digital workspace by Shamillah Bankiya and Daniela Raffel of Dawn Capital. Especially interesting in light of the FT article that Teams could become as significant as an Internet Browser.
From the operators
“I don’t like to gamble, but if there is one thing I’m willing to bet on, it’s myself.” Beyonce via Polina Marinova of the Profile
Will lockdown kill Innovation? by Maija Palmer of Sifted. How long isolation is already beginning to erode innovators' emotional intelligence, divergent thinking, and team trust.
Social Entrepreneurship, Combating Burnout and Competition Between Women by Tessy Antony de Nassau on Tell It Like It Is with Cassandra Rae.
I quit my job at the start of the pandemic to launch a company. Here’s what I’ve learned in the first 90 days from Polina Marinova of The Profile. Her key message You will underestimate yourself. Do it anyway.
How to build your business on Instagram by female founders including Lifestory’s Sarah Doherty. Just remember consistency is queen.
Lessons from year one: Nixit. The major lessons that period start-up Nixit have taken away in the immediate aftermath of their businesses’ first year of operation.
Events
Angel Summit
19th January 2021
Angel Summit is an annual event and community hosted by SignalFire that brings together active angels from people writing their first checks to full-time angels and emerging fund managers.
This year they are partnering with Silicon Valley bank.
Job opportunities
CMO/Head of Marketing, &Sisters (London): Own brand and marketing efforts to shape the menstrual health ecosystem of the future. Apply here
Diversity VC is looking for a new CEO. Apply here
New Wave, the seed fund for European founders, is hiring. Find out more here
SEE YOU NEXT WEEK!
If you have any comments, questions, or just want to chat about start-ups and venturing then do drop a comment below.
Written by Alexandra Wyatt, based in London but a global traveler. You can also reach me on Twitter and Instagram.